After sixteen races this season, the 2024 IndyCar champion will be crowned next weekend. In theory, there are still three contenders for the title: Alex Palou, Will Power, and Scott McLaughlin. Palou has by far the best chance at the title, but with a mistake, Power could strike hard, while McLaughlin only has a theoretical chance. Here are the scenarios: who will be the champion and when?

Power vs Palou

Thanks to Will Power's spin in the second race at the Milwaukee Mile, Alex Palou still has a 33-point lead in the championship. Most scenarios are in Palou’s favor.

Power wins: The rule for the Nashville race weekend is very simple: if Palou finishes in the top nine, he is automatically the champion—even if Power secures the pole, leads the most laps, and wins. If Power does not lead the most laps, Palou can even finish in tenth place.

Power finishes second: If Power finishes second, with pole and leading the most laps, he will earn 44 points. In this case, Palou needs to earn at least 12 points to become champion, which corresponds to an eighteenth place. If Power misses leading the most laps, this threshold moves to twentieth place. If Power does not secure pole, a 21st place is sufficient for Palou, and if Power does not lead any laps on the way to second place, a 22nd place will give Palou the title.

Power finishes third: If Power finishes third, it becomes very challenging for the Penske driver. If he does this with pole and leading the most laps, he will earn 39 points. Palou then needs just seven points to secure the title, which is already earned at a 23rd place. If Power does not lead the most laps, Palou is already assured of the title with a third place from Power.

Power finishes fourth or lower: Palou is automatically the champion.

What if there is a tie between Power and Palou?

When Power and Palou are tied in points, Power has the advantage. Prior to the Nashville weekend, Power has secured three wins over the season, while Palou has two. In the event of a tie between both drivers, Palou would not have won the race—so based on having more wins, Power would become the champion.

When Could Scott McLaughlin Become Champion?

Scott McLaughlin's chance at the 2024 IndyCar title is entirely theoretical. It is very simple: if Alex Palou starts the race on Sunday (and earns at least five points), McLaughlin is eliminated.

The likelihood of this happening is extremely slim. McLaughlin is well aware of this and even joked on X with the comment: “Hey Alex Palou, wanted to invite you over for dinner this week. I’m making sushi from scratch, don’t worry though, my fish guy is legit.” Palou initially responded with “Cool, send me location,” but after being informed it was a joke, he declined a dinner with the New Zealander.

If Palou does not start, McLaughlin would also need to win the race and make up seventeen points on Will Power. So, it must be a very extraordinary situation for McLaughlin to win the title.