2010 Season Predictions

A lot has changed since that warm Saturday back in October, when we last saw what we now call the Izod IndyCar Series. The Izod clothing company signed on as title sponsor. Randy Bernard is the series’ new CEO. KV Racing has expanded from one car (Mario Moraes) to three (Takuma Sato and E.J. Viso join the squad). Dale Coyne Racing also expanded from one car (Justin Wilson) to two (Milka Duno and Alex Lloyd). Conversely, Newman/Haas/Lanigan has downsized from two cars (Graham Rahal and Robert Doornbos/Oriol Servia/Alex Lloyd) to one (Hideki Mutoh).

Simona de Silvestro joins the fray with HVM Racing. Mario Romancini will pilot the Conquest machine. Ryan Hunter-Reay moves to Andretti Autosport, which underwent a management shift that now sees Michael Andretti control the racing operations. Graham Rahal remains without a full-time deal, but has agreed to drive Sarah Fisher’s car at St. Pete and Barber while he still pieces together his 2010 plans.

Finally, though, the speculation of who will do what with whom will come to an end this weekend, as the season gets underway with its first visit to the Sao Paolo, Brazil street circuit designed by Tony Cotman, former Champ Car Chief Steward.

The group test in Barber suggests that Team Penske is the bets if the bunch, while Chip Ganassi’s out fit struggled, and KV Racing surged forward. However, testing is always an enigma and difficult to gauge, because team’s intentions and strategies are never made public. Did any teams show what they really had? We really won’t know until they roll off for practice on Saturday.

So, with the season now just around the bend, what could we expect to see in 2010?


Champion

It’s safe to assume that this year’s champion will, once again, come out of either the Ganassi or Penske stables. The question is which of the five drivers those teams cover will take the crown.

Ryan Briscoe appears to have asserted himself as the “team leader” within Roger Penske’s outfit, and has continued to tune his craft since coming into the team in 2008. It appears that he is poised to take home the title this year, though I expect Will Power to make a strong push in Penske’s third car.

Both of Ganassi’s drivers will be forces through the year, and we’ll likely see another title fight come down to final laps of the final race. But, Briscoe might end up with the advantage at season’s end.

Rookie of the Year

Takuma Sato is the front-runner here because his team is better than other teams that are fielding rookies, which will give the Japanese driver a decisive advantage on ovals.

However, on road and street circuits, it could be a different story. Simona de Silvestro acquitted herself nicely during the open test, even turning a lap faster than Danica Patrick, challenging Patrick for IndyCar’s Alpha-female.

Mario Romincini showed much bravado in the 2009 Firestone Indy Lights season, taking home a pair of wins, both actually on ovals. The Conquest team isn’t up to par on those circuits, but Romincini’s bravery should make him fun to watch on road and street circuits.


Most Improved Team

Up until this week, KV Racing seemed poised to assume this award. Fielding three drivers, with Paul Tracy moonlighting at Indianapolis and the Canadian rounds, and some of quickest times in testing showed that this team has done their homework over the off-season.

But, with Sarah Fisher signing Graham Rahal for select races to start the year, and her team’s increased schedule, make this squad an intriguing one, with the signing of Rahal bring particular emphasis. Fisher’s struggles on road and street circuits have been well documented, overshadowing the admirable job she has done to grow her team while others downsize, or disappear altogether.

Putting Rahal in her seat, even if only for a couple races, will make them a threat. Rahal’s speed as a road racer is without question; the only thing that has held him back in a propensity for mistakes and bad luck.

If he shows an increased maturity as a driver and stays out of trouble, this pairing could turn some heads at the St. Pete and Barber races..


Biggest Surprise

Andretti Autosport has been on a downturn since 2008 and failed to win a single race in 2009. With the shuffling of the team administration, many felt that they could get back on track in 2010. But, the open test was a struggle for them, with Marco Andretti being their highest ranking driver, barely cracking the top ten.

Still, there is a lot of potential to be had from this team, and there should benefit in particular from their singing of Ryan Hunter-Reay. The Floridian is a former Champ Car outcast who came into the Rahal Letterman midway through 2007, when that group was little more than a mid-pack runner, and that was one a good day. Hunter-Reay’s arrival saw that group improve dramatically and immediately, as he qualified in the top six in his first race for them at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. The combination eventually captured a win in 2008 before parting ways when the team lost its sponsor and folded.

Andretti Autosport is in a similar position that Rahal Letterman was in when they signed the former Atlantic Series standout. Might they also see an increase in performance, ala Rahal Letterman? It seems more than possible.


Biggest Disappointment

Everyone fell in love with Dale Coyne Racing in 2009. And, why not? The team, with Justin Wilson as its driver, frequently challenged the Big Two on road and street circuits, and captured a very popular win at Watkins Glen in July.

However, with Wilson gone, as well engineer Bill Pappas, Coyne’s operation may see big downturn. And, with the maligned Milka Duno and rookie Alex Lloyd as drivers, things point to a year of struggles for this operation.