Dixon, Briscoe, Franchitti Make Title Hunt a Three Man Chase

Four races remain in the 2009 IndyCar Series season. Over the prior 13 races, the title lead has changed 12 times between drivers Ryan Briscoe, Dario Franchitti, and 2008 champion Scott Dixon. Even Helio Castroneves (who missed the opener in St. Pete) and Danica Patrick (whose Andretti Green Team is clearly below bar right now) were in contention through the midway point of the season. However, since July, these three have separated themselves and are set to fight for a championship in the closing races.

Currently Dixon leads the pack, with Briscoe three behind him, and Franchitti sitting 20 points in the rear. With the points as close as they are, on-track battles and position changes are going to see the points change with every lap. Dixon and Briscoe and are only separated by one position on the track, while Franchitti is but one more win away from potentially halving his deficit, at the very least.

Just how much can the points change in one race? Last year, Scott Dixon led Helio Castroneves by 78 points heading into Sonoma, the first of a three-race run to finish out the 2008 season. So long as he kept the Brazilian in sight, Dixon was going to walk away with the title with at least one race to spare. However, poor strategy at Infineon saw him finish 11th while Castroneves won, cutting the difference between the two by nearly 40 points. Castroneves nearly cut that margin in half again the following week in Belle Isle, but a late race block on Justin Wilson saw him forced to surrender the lead, leaving the margin heading into the final race at 30. While Dixon walked away with the championship at season’s end, it was much closer than we all expected.

With the top three as close as they are, it is nearly impossible to predict an outcome, and the results of this year’s title may depend on who can avoid mistakes and/or crashes in the remaining four races.

Now, what of Helio Castroneves and Danica Patrick? Those two are barely hanging on to title hopes right now, so how likely is it that one or the other could make a miracle run? Answer: slim and none (and “slim” is putting his bags into his car). Castroneves certainly has the equipment to mount a charge, but stands 101 and points back. He’ll need to average a little more than 25 points gained to even tie for the lead, and will have to depend on others’ mistake to make up that ground. Still, given what he could have faced, I’d say the Brazilian is happy just to be driving. Plus, winning a third Indy 500 is a nice consolation prize.

Patrick has done a lot with very little. Andretti Green Racing has been vastly inferior to Penske and Ganassi this year, and the 27-year-old has had to drag her car up the grid to even rank fifth in the standings, which is a very fine effort. While a win is not out of the question in the remaining four races, especially given her abilities on ovals, it is too much to ask for a last-minute title charge. Quite simply, she’s too far back (would have to gain more than 35 points per race) and doesn’t have the right car to do so. All the same, she has become a true top driver this year, and continued improvement, especially on the road and street circuits, will suit her well in the future (assuming the rumors of a switch to Ganassi’s IndyCar team are true).

Editorial Prediction

As I said earlier, because the top three drivers are so close, it is very hard to draw a bead on who will end the season on top. It will likely come down to a matter of luck, since Dixon, Briscoe and Franchitti seem to be equal on talent and equipment. But, that isn’t going to prevent a prediction from being made.

Because the Target Chip Ganassi teammates will have to battle each other, while only one of Team Penske’s drivers is in the hunt (allowing Castroneves and Will Power to play wingmen), I’ll pick Ryan Briscoe as my 2009 title winner. The Aussie has assumed a role as “team leader” within Penske’s operation, and has driven superbly through the entire 2009 season. While he had a string of second places and has only won twice, he has kept himself in the hunt and, if he can get another win or two, can hurdle over his title rivals, who will likely take points away from themselves as they battle.

Of course, nothing is set in stone until the final checkered flag falls.

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